The Biogeography of Invasive Plants – Projecting Range Shifts with Climate Change
نویسنده
چکیده
Correlative models between species occurrences and climate (here referred to as ‘habitat suitability models’) have become increasingly popular for forecasting risk from invasive plants under current and future climate scenarios. Th ese models have the potential to inform management and monitoring eff orts by prioritizing landscapes considered at highest risk under a changing climate. However, a wide range of choices regarding climatic predictor variables, model ling approaches and even dis tributional data sets infl uences the resulting projections. Th e eff ects of these choices are seldom defi ned explicitly, which reduces their utility for scientists and managers alike. Th is chapter reviews common practices of habitat suitability modelling as they apply to invasive plants. Th e chapter also reviews major fi ndings of recent projections of range shifts in invasive plants. In both cases, the aim is to explore how diff erent choices of predictors, models and input data can infl uence conclusions in a habitat suitability modelling framework and develop recommendations for best practices.
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